Paint It Black by Alex Chavez
Comparing Russell to Others...
Remember the 1999 Raiders? If not, let me remind you about them, because they reflect what we have this year here in Oakland. In 1999, the Raiders had enough fancy puzzle pieces to make you believe you could build something special. Rich Gannon, Tyrone Wheatley, Napoleon Kaufman, Charles Woodson, Jon Ritchie, Tim Brown, Pro-Bowler Darrell Russell. Yet they sputtered, blew a few leads, and tantalized you by being in every game yet finishing 8-8. That's what the 2008 Raiders remind me of. Outside of the Broncos debacle in week 1, this has been a very tough, somewhat talented team. They play hard and have the similar shiny puzzle pieces in JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Nnamdi Asomugha, Morrison and Howard, and even Robert Gallery. The parts are there, yet week after week they tease us and give us glimpses of victory, only to have yet another tough loss break our fantasy.
So what happened with the 1999 team? They went out in the off-season and grabbed a few hungry and productive players. Andre Rison showed up, followed by William Thomas and Regan Upshaw. The young talent matured a bit, and the 2000 season was a smashing success. We are that close. No other team in the AFC West has as much young talent as the Oakland Raiders do. Think about that, and let it bring you some hope. The Chargers are close, but some of their top talent like Tomlinson and Gates are starting to show wear and tear from age. They're also coached by Norvell Turner so don't expect toughness in times of trouble.
I bring up this parallel as a way to focus on one of the young talents on our team - JaMarcus Russell. I'm not sure if it's due to the "satisfy me NOW" mentality of our populace, but I already read a surprisingly high number of complaints and negativity about Russell. It would be easy to brush it aside as foolish talk, but then what would I write about?!
If you've read me for the last few years, you probably know I try and stick to facts and leave out emotions as much as possible. So here it goes, the quick and dirty on Russell.
- Russell is 23 years old. Jay Cutler is 25 and Philip Rivers will turn 27 this season.
- Russell has made a whopping SIX career starts. Drew Brees, who Tom Cable said he wanted Russell to become like, has made 98.
- Russell has thrown 5 TDs and 2 INTs, completing 53% of his passes. Matt Ryan, a very talented QB in his own right and playing in a better offensive system, has thrown...5 TDs and 3 INTs, completing 57% of his passes.
- Russell passes the quickly-becoming-important David Lewin test. Lewin is a writer who researched and realized that the best way to measure whether an NCAA QB will succeed in the NFL is to look at whether he started at least 30 college games and whether he completed at least 60% of his passes (more on this later). Russell passed both benchmarks while at LSU.
- Russell has not uttered a single word that made me worry. Guys like Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, and Michael Vick all did. A few people raised their eyebrows when Russell said he "played well" against the Broncos, despite his team being embarrassed. To a man, the reporter asked Russell how he thought he played, and Russell completed 65% of his passes with 2 TDs and 0 INTs.
When I put all of these thoughts and numbers together, I calmly wait and watch Russell develop, knowing that he has very strong ODDS of succeeding in the NFL. Nothing is guaranteed when you draft a QB, but you can at least take comfort in knowing that Russell, despite what a fan's emotions or eyes may lead him to think, is doing just fine so far in his development.
But wait, how can I say that what someone sees isn't important? I will present three cases and then retreat back to my mother's basement to do more nerdy research for future articles. Let's quickly look at Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, and Donovan McNabb.
First 6 starts of 1st full NFL season:
Eli Manning: 0 wins, 6 losses, 3 TDs, 8 INTs, 44% completions.
Peyton Manning: 1 win, 5 losses, 6 TDs, 14 INTs, 54% completions.
Donovan McNabb: 2 wins, 4 losses, 8 TDs, 6 INTs, 53% completions.
JaMarcus Russell: 2 wins, 4 losses, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, 51% completions.
So there you go. What can you tell about a QB after a handful of starts? Absolutely nothing. The other guys on the list certainly looked confused, over their heads, and inaccurate. I think they turned out well enough.
Please remember that guys like Ben Roethlisberger, who stepped in and immediately lit it up, are the rare minority. Ben stepped into a team with Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, Antwaan Randle-El, and THREE Pro-Bowl offensive linemen. Oh, and a possible Hall of Fame coach.
So, if you ever feel down watching Jamarcus make some young QB mistakes, take a step back, put down the triple cheeseburger, check your weight, and put it all in perspective. Ask yourself "who am I comparing Russell to that makes him seem SOOOO badly off-pace for what a developing QB should be?". Then, take a deep breath, preferably of simple atmospheric air, and remember that his career path so far is AHEAD of both Manning brothers and Donovan McNabb. Shoot, even Drew Brees threw for more INTs than TDs after his first TWO FULL SEASONS.
So relax and watch Russell continue to mature as he leads us to the 2009 AFC West championship.
Bonus: David Lewin writes for Pro Football Prospectus and Footballoutsiders.com. He researched and saw that some college statistics have proven to correlate with NFL success better than others: pass completion % and games started. Russell did well in these stats, thus Russell has a GOOD chance at being a successful NFL QB. He has a very low chance of being a bust.
For comparison, guys like Kyle Boller and Joe Flacco did not pass these NCAA stat-tests, and have either proven to be busts or are highly likely to become one. It's not absolute, but a strong indicator.
For extra laughs, check out this hilarious video mocking the Kansas City Chiefs.
Poor Chiefs
Alex
Contact Alex
More Stories From Alex
Pink Elephant
Knock, Knocking on McFadden's Door
Oakland's 5 Choices Today?
Raider DVD's
